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Are there “external risks” according to the balance of payments’ data
In the Budget 2008 statement the government declared its intentions to defend the economy from “external risks” via fiscal means. This is not a new understanding, although popular analyses and releases are focusing almost entirely on the current account deficit in the balance of payments. We must however tell the difference betw...
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Innovations and supervision
Last week Bulgarian lawmakers urgently extended the scope of financial supervision activities. Among insurance activities were also included contracts, which have options to acquire real estate property via payment of life-long pension or rent (thus enterprises, offering such a product, have to obtain a license as insurers). Thi...
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Why taxes were not an object of discussion during local elections
Local elections confirmed the tradition mainly personal characteristics to compete, rather than concrete suggestions. As opposed to parliament elections, where we gradually observe emerging competition of ideas regarding tax size, on a local level we almost did not hear anything on this matter. It turned out however that 2008 wi...
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Budget thinking in a state of growing economy
Three weeks ago we wrote that the main debate when making the 2008 budget will be between defenders of tax reduction and supporters of government spending increase. The base for these alternatives’ existence is the willingness to balance the budget, i.e. to fix the large surplus. Now we see that the government has chosen a media...
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Speculations on the currency board future may be dangerous
The guarantees for financial stability in the country seem important on the background of the ever-growing and frequent pessimistic forecasts by external analysts of the development of Bulgarian economy and the monetary regime – forecasts whose logic seems odd to us, the Bulgarian economists. Ten years after the abolishment of i...
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Is it difficult to make definite forecasts?
Is it really that hard for economists to provide clear and definite estimates and forecasts for the economic situation? Actually not. We state that despite worries and warnings of many analysts, the following things will not happen in Bulgaria:1/ the BGN/EUR exchange rate will not change until the introduction of the euro as the...
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Industry Watch poll of forecasters envisages 6.3% economic growth in 2008
2007 Growth RatesGDP 6.4Consumer prices 8.5 Consumption 6.0Investments 23.3Exports 6.4Imports 12.2Budget surplus (% of GDP) 3.72008 Growth RatesGDP 6.3Consumer prices 5.7Consumption 5.8 Investments 18.3 Exports 7.7Imports 10.6Budget surplus (% of GDP) 2.8...
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The political choice for the fiscal 2008
In recent months syndicates have been active participants in the public debate on the formation of the fiscal policy. In August they declared themselves opponents to the suggested income tax reduction to 10%. In September the focus shifted from the tax to the expenditure policy of the government with the beginning of the teacher...
